The Philippine peso hit a fresh record low on Monday, accompanied by a downturn in the stock market as investors and traders grew increasingly sensitive to both global and domestic uncertainties. The currency depreciated by 2.9 centavos, closing at P61.75 against the US dollar, surpassing Friday’s previous record low of P61.721. Simultaneously, the Philippine Stock Exchange index (PSEi) dropped by 35.25 points, equivalent to a 0.59 percent decline, ending the day at 5,941.52.
According to market analysts, the peso’s trading has shifted from being driven by fundamentals to being influenced by sentiment. A trader noted that while the dollar remains broadly strong, the day’s movement also indicated a demand for safety amid rising oil-related dollar demand and heightened domestic uncertainty. The trader emphasized that at current levels, positioning and momentum are significant factors that could amplify movements in the market’s thin liquidity.
The outlook for the peso remains inclined toward further weakening, with a rate of P62 to the dollar now considered psychologically attainable. However, sharp fluctuations in both directions are expected. The peso’s decline mirrors similar trends in other regional currencies, including the Indonesian rupiah and the Indian rupee, both of which have also hit record lows. Renewed tensions in the Gulf have driven oil prices and global yields higher, subsequently strengthening the dollar and exerting pressure on oil-importing economies.
The rupiah, which ranks among the worst-performing currencies in the region, experienced a 1.16 percent drop to 17,665 per dollar, marking its largest intraday percentage loss since April 2025. Meanwhile, the Indian rupee reached an all-time low of 96.303 per dollar, continuing a downward trend that began with the spike in oil prices following increased tensions in Iran. MUFG analyst Michael Wan highlighted that Asian emerging market currencies are particularly vulnerable to the stronger dollar, with the rupee and peso facing dual challenges from rising oil prices, and yield-sensitive units like the rupiah also facing domestic obstacles.
Investors remain cautious amid ongoing concerns over the Middle East conflict, especially following recent threats from Trump directed at Iran. Japhet Tantiangco, a research manager at Philstocks Financial Inc., noted that fears surrounding the region have once again taken precedence, prompting a defensive stance among investors. Luis Limlingan, head of sales at Regina Capital Development Corp., added that buying interest was subdued as market participants awaited clearer catalysts. Rising global crude oil prices and the peso’s persistent weakness have further dampened sentiment. Trading activity was notably sluggish, with net value turnover dropping to P3.85 billion, which is significantly below the year-to-date average, indicating a continued hesitance among investors. Foreign funds remained largely inactive, with net outflows amounting to P225.76 million, while only property stocks managed a slight uptick of 0.19 percent, as the mining and oil sectors led declines with a 3.4 percent drop. Market breadth stayed negative, with 117 stocks declining against 65 advancing, and 68 issues unchanged.